I surfaced from the blogoshpere for a while and started asking IT people and other pundits about Google's flaws. Customer service was a big one, as well as (of course) Google's secrecy. Close behind was its neglect of existing products.
I had previously assumed that Google would be diligently upgrading its products until they worked well. After all, it can afford to, and it releases them early and collects a lot of feedback from online beta testers. But I may be wrong. I think about Froogle, which for some reason has never worked very well. I get better results just using a standard Google search.
That's where Microsoft comes in. One thing it has is tenacity. It may not innovate very well, but whenever it goes after a category it bangs away at it until it gets it (mostly) right. That's how Microsoft has taken over market after market in the past.
Now, Microsoft is not likely to take over search from Google. Google's too experienced. But there is increasing buzz about excellent alternatives to Google Search. Microsoft could either emulate the best or buy them.
The real problem is Google's other products. The mediocrity of Froogle leaves a big hole in that area. Gmail has been improved, but it seems slower to add new features than it should. Google purchased Blogger, which seems like a second-rate system, and it hasn't gotten much better.
As Google moves into desktop applications, Microsoft's home turf, can it really carve out a strong position? Microsoft's Ray Ozzie is a very smart guy, and Microsoft is fighting for its life here. I can envision a perfectly plausible scenario in which Microsoft moves ahead of Google in Inernet-based applications out of sheer tenacity.
Google started out as very innovative, but it's now mostly reproducing online products that others have pioneered. It has a spectacular team of computer scientists, but this kind of person wants to create new stuff, not upgrade the old ones. Microsoft will not make that mistake.
Of course, Google's real advantage is AdSense. As Microsoft moves its apps online, will it figure out how to make money from them? It has always been lousy at the advertising business. Of course, if Google doesn't figure out how to get its new apps powerful and broadly accepted, people may be willing to buy subscriptions to Microsoft's online products.
That would stifle Google's ability to create more markets for its ads through new products. And it might give Microsoft a boost in developing advertising models for its own products.
There is still a long way to go in perfecting search engines, and if Google stays ahead there, it will provide plenty of revenues for years to come. But it could be leaving a hole. Future scenario--Search: Google. Most other online apps: Microsoft. Then it becomes a much tougher fight.
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